Methods
How every number on the board is built, dated and checked.
What this is
The monitor shows the current physical state of the Texas Gulf Coast crude system and its link to Cushing, measured against its own history. It does not forecast prices, flows or stocks, and nothing on it is a trade idea.
The five-year rule
Each weekly value is placed against the same ISO week in the five full calendar years before the current one (for 2026: 2021–2025). Its percentile in that window gives its status.
"Tight" or "loose" is never inferred from one number alone. Spreads use a three-year z-score instead; beyond ±2σ a tile says "widest since" a date and links to the raw series.
Definitions
| Series | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gulf crude stocks (PADD 3) | M bbl | EIA WPSR WCESTP31 |
| Cushing (OK) | M bbl | EIA WPSR W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL |
| US commercial crude (US) | M bbl | EIA WPSR WCESTUS1 |
| Midwest crude stocks (PADD 2) | M bbl | EIA WPSR WCESTP21 |
| SPR (US) | M bbl | EIA WPSR WCSSTUS1 |
| Gulf refinery inputs (PADD 3) | M bbl/d | EIA WPSR WCRRIP32 |
| Gulf refinery utilization (PADD 3) | % | EIA WPSR W_NA_YUP_R30_PER |
| Crude exports (US) | M bbl/d | EIA WPSR WCREXUS2 |
| Gulf crude imports (PADD 3) | M bbl/d | EIA WPSR WCEIMP32 |
| Production (US) | M bbl/d | EIA WPSR WCRFPUS2 |
| WTI Cushing spot (FRED) | $/bbl | FRED DCOILWTICO |
| Brent spot (FRED) | $/bbl | FRED DCOILBRENTEU |
| CL M1 − M2 (NYMEX) | $/bbl | NYMEX CL via Yahoo CL@0 − CL@1 |
| Brent − WTI, matched (ICE) | $/bbl | ICE Brent and NYMEX CL, matched months BZ − CL, matched delivery months |
| Dated Brent premium (ICE) | $/bbl | FRED DCOILBRENTEU − ICE Brent front via Yahoo DCOILBRENTEU − BZ=F |
| Gulf 3-2-1 crack (EIA) | $/bbl | EIA Gulf Coast spot and FRED WTI (2 × EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG + EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG) × 42 / 3 − DCOILWTICO |
| Texas ports, 28-day (4 PORTS) | calls | IMF PortWatch port481 + port264 + port933 + port1285, trailing 28 days |
Status rules:
- Percentile of the same ISO week in the five full prior calendar years: low < 20th, high > 80th; extreme beyond ±2σ
- Percentile of the same ISO week's daily values in the five full prior calendar years; spreads add a three-year z-score
Dates and revisions
Every number shows two dates: the period it measures and when it was released. Clocks are never blended: all EIA tiles use the same week, and prices say when they are newer. Missing stays missing; a value past its stale limit greys out and keeps its last date. Times show in your time zone.
| Source | Release | Stale after | Revisions |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA WPSR | Wed 10:30 ET; Thu after a Monday holiday | 9 days | rare; latest shown |
| FRED spot | daily, ~2 business days late | 5 business days | final |
| NYMEX and ICE via Yahoo Finance | daily settlement | 3 business days | final |
| IMF PortWatch | weekly, Tue | 14 days | restates history; current vintage shown |
| EIA pipeline movements | monthly, ~3-month lag | 100 days | revised; context only |
| NHC | every 6 h when active | 6 hours | superseded by the next advisory |
How the brief is written
After each release the board's numbers are handed to a language model with one job: describe what changed. A check runs before anything is published: every number in the text must match a number on the board, and forecast words are not allowed. If the check fails, the page shows the rule-built headline instead.
Sources and audit
Each source, the series it supplies, what it feeds, and its last successful refresh.
| Source | Series | Feeds | Last receipt | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIA WPSR | WCESTP31 · W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL · WCESTUS1 · WCESTP21 · WCSSTUS1 · WCRRIP32 · W_NA_YUP_R30_PER · WCREXUS2 · WCEIMP32 · WCRFPUS2 | state, series | Oct 27, 2026, 18:45 ET | ok |
| EIA Gulf Coast spot | EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG · EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG | spreads, series | Oct 27, 2026, 20:34 ET | ok |
| FRED | DCOILWTICO · DCOILBRENTEU | spreads, series | Oct 27, 2026, 20:30 ET | ok |
| NYMEX and ICE via Yahoo | CL@0 · CL@1 · CL@2 · CL=F · BZ=F | state, spreads, series | Oct 27, 2026, 20:55 ET | ok |
| EIA pipeline movements | MCRMPP3P21 · MCRMPP2P31 | map | Oct 27, 2026, 18:45 ET | ok |
| IMF PortWatch | port481 · port264 · port933 · port1285 | map, series | Oct 27, 2026, 15:22 ET | ok |
| NWS tropical alerts | tropical:houston_galveston · tropical:corpus_christi | state, map, calendar | Oct 27, 2026, 19:40 ET | ok |
| NHC advisories | nhc_atlantic_advisories | state, map, calendar | Oct 27, 2026, 19:50 ET | ok |
References
Every source the board draws on, with what we take from it and how it is changed.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Stocks, refinery inputs and utilization, imports, exports and production (PADD 2, PADD 3, Cushing, US).
- EIA. Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. Gulf Coast gasoline and ULSD, used in the 3-2-1 crack.
- EIA. Petroleum Supply Monthly. Crude movements by pipeline between PADD 2 and PADD 3; monthly and revised.
- EIA. Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity. Cushing working capacity.
- EIA. U.S. Energy Atlas: Crude Oil Pipelines. Pipeline lines on the system map, simplified.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (DCOILWTICO) and Brent – Europe (DCOILBRENTEU). EIA spot prices as republished by FRED.
- International Monetary Fund and University of Oxford. IMF PortWatch: Daily Port Activity Data and Trade Estimates. Source: IMF PortWatch. Transformed: we add the daily tanker calls of Houston, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur and Texas City and sum them over a trailing 28 days. Method: Arslanalp et al. (2025), Nowcasting Global Trade from Space, IMF Working Paper 25/93.
- National Weather Service, via Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. Texas coast alert levels.
- National Hurricane Center. Public advisories and forecast cones. Active Atlantic storms.
- NYMEX and ICE, via Yahoo Finance. Crude oil futures quotes (CL, BZ). The futures curve and the spreads built on it.
Disclaimer
Information only. Not a forecast or investment advice. Data from EIA, FRED, IMF PortWatch, NWS, NHC, and NYMEX and ICE quotes via Yahoo Finance; full citations under References. Source terms apply to reuse.